For as long as I’ve been doing this, marketers have loved “proof”. Give us a stat, a framework or a neat little truth about how buyers behave and we’ll build an entire strategy around it.​

Take this one: “around 80% of preliminary favourites go on to become the final choice.” It’s useful. Preference clearly matters. But becoming “the preferred vendor” isn’t really a strategy. It’s a bit like telling someone the secret to winning is to win. It’s the how we all care about.​

Last year, we argued that marketing isn’t in the business of trust. Our research backs that up again: 97% say real trust begins only after some form of performance or delivery. Yet buyers are shortlisting, developing preferences and backing up their choices long before that happens.​

So what makes something credible enough, valuable enough or possible enough for somebody to exchange money for it? Belief.​

And belief is slippery. Around three quarters of buyers say their decisions can still move once direct engagement begins. A buyer can believe you’re worth it and then lose confidence after one bad conversation. They can convince themselves and stop short of convincing others.​

This year, Art & Science dissects what builds belief before a favourite emerges, what strengthens or weakens it under serious consideration, and what happens when it has to leave one person and survive the journey into a room you may never enter.​

This is how belief moves.​

Matt Neal​ CEO, Differentiated​